Economists are warning the US Dollar is set to crash with an economic recovery “in tatters,” as Russia and China continue to move away from the US, putting their reliance on the Dollar at record lows…
The state of the US Economy is raising alarm bells around the world, for just about anyone looking beyond the Stock Market right now, and many are warning about the state of the US Dollar.
Amid an already looming recession, a year of historic unemployment and an estimated $5 Trillion dollars in combined stimulus, the US Dollar is trading at its lowest levels in three years. Just six months ago, Economist and former bank chairman Stephen Roach was criticized for predicting that a crash in the US Dollar was coming, and that it would decline by 35 percent by the end of 2021.
While some pointed to the optimism seen in the Stock Market as the 2020 Election approached — Roach continued to stand by his prediction, noting that markets are focusing on one main thing, which is the Federal Reserve holding interest rates at zero, no matter what happens. He said, “That gives the markets conviction to look through literally anything, from political insurrection to the likelihood of a double-dip, to a V-shaped recovery that’s in tatters. The markets do not seem to care.”
But the rest of the world does care. And while the US has long relied on its status as the world reserve currency, countries like China and Russia have been taking steps to pull away from the US Dollar. While Moscow used to be one of the top holders of US Treasuries, increasing tensions between the two countries and a host of sanctions from the US under the Obama Administration pushed Russia to reduce its reliance on the dollar in recent years. Beijing found itself in the same boat with the Trump Administration, as the US increased its military presence in the South China Sea and launched a historic trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
As a result, reports noted that “In the first quarter of 2020, the dollar’s share of trade between Russia and China fell below 50 percent for the first time on record.” While we have watched China and Russia reduce their reliance on the Dollar, other currencies like the Euro have benefitted, showing the world that they don’t have to rely on the US Dollar as much as they once did.
Meanwhile, all eyes are on the “American Rescue Plan” that is being pushed by the Biden Administration — and whether they’re going to succeed in getting it passed by Congress anytime soon. The $1.9 Trillion-dollar package would include another round of stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, state and local government aid, and funding for a national vaccination program.
While the hope is that the funding could be used to help stimulate the economy at a time when it is desperately needed. experts are also warning about the long-term effects, as the continued budget deficit lowers domestic savings and continues to take a hit at the value of the US Dollar.